Losing Trick Count (LTC) is a hand evaluation method popularized by Australian expert Ron Klinger. It's used to judge how high to bid after an 8+ card trump fit is identified.
LTC employs the following math:
- Count the number of "winners" and "losers" in each of your suits:
- Each ace and king counts as a winner. This overvalues kings compared to aces, but so be it.
- Queens count as 0 or 0.5 winners, depending on the holding. A queen supported by another honor card or at least 2 spot cards (AQ, Qxxxx) can be counted as 0.5 winners. Queen doubletons and singletons (Qx, Q) are worthless - 2 losers and 1 loser, respectively.
- Jacks are worth 0.5 winners if supporting other honor cards, e.g. QJx or AJT. Otherwise, they are worthless.
Examples:
- xxx, Jxx = 3 losers
- Qxx = 2.5 losers
- Axx, AJx, KJx, Kxx, QJx, Qx, Jx, xx = 2 losers. Note that Kxx is worth more than Qxx but less than Axx. I'd say it's worth 2.25 losers, but that would give me a headache.
- AQx, AJT, KJT = 1.5 losers
- AKx, AQJ, KQ, Kx, K, Q, J, x = 1 loser
- AQ = 0.5 losers
- AK, void = 0 losers
Do not count more than 3 losers per suit. For example, xxxxx is only 3 losers, not 5.
- The following is my preference for trump holdings:
- Deduct 0.5 losers from all trump holdings containing 1.5 or 2.5 losers. This includes AQx, AJT, KJT. I'd count these as 1 loser, not 1.5.
- Deduct 1 full loser for all other holdings that contain at least 1 spot card loser. Axx, KTx, QJx, AJx: I'd count these as 1 loser, not 2. xxx, xxxx: I'd count these as 2 losers, not 3. Think about this a little... AKxxx opposite JTxx is supposedly 4 losers, yet you are even money to have NO losers if you cash the ace and king in real life.
- No additional deductions for any other trump holdings, e.g. AQJ (still 1 loser) or AK (still 0 losers).
- Add up all the losers in each suit. Example after partner opens 1
:
T987
A984
87532
—
2 spade losers (not 3 losers; see previous step) + 2 heart losers + 3 diamond losers + 0 club losers = 7 total losers.
- Estimate the number of losers in your partner's hand based on his/her bidding. The most common scenarios are a natural 1-level opening bid of 1
/
/
/
(7 losers on average), an overcall (typically 7-8 losers at the 1-level and 7-losers at the 2-level), or a limit raise (typically 8 losers). Add that estimate to your hand's losers. Example using the above hand:
You
T987
A984
87532
—
|
|
Partner
AQ532
K2
KT4
764
|
You have 7 losers. Your partner has 1 + 1 + 2 + 3 = 7 losers. Your 7 + partner's 7 = 14.
- Subtract your combined losers from 24. In this case, 24 - 14 = 10. This is the estimated number of tricks your side can win with spades as trumps. It implies that you should reach the game contract of 4
.
Basic Corollaries of LTC
Competitive Bidding Considerations
Opponents' bids may impact your LTC evaluation. For example, say you hold
KJx. If the opponents are silent, I'd count this as 2 losers. If RHO opens 1
though, I'd count this as 1.5 losers because of the increased odds of RHO holding the heart ace and/or queen. If I eventually become declarer, I can finesse RHO for those hypothetical cards.
However, if LHO opens 1
, I'd treat this holding as closer to 2.5 losers. In that situation, LHO may hold
AQxxx and can finesse MY heart honors.